Patch Democrats Surveyed: High On Jay Nixon's Chances, Concerned About Susan Montee
The latest "Blue Arch" survey of Missouri Democrats focuses on the party's statewide candidates.
With just more than 40 days left until the November election, Missouri Democrats are confident in Governor Jay Nixon's chances for re-election but by a wide margin are worried about former State Auditor Susan Montee as she tries to unseat Republican incumbent Peter Kinder from the Lieutenant Governor's office.
Those were the main findings of the most recent survey of Democrats as part of the Patch Blue Arch project, which asks current and former lawmakers, activists, voters and other party "influencers" in the weeks and months leading up to November's election.
The non-scientific survey was conducted September 17-21 and received 29 responses.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most confident will win in November," 69 percent said Jay Nixon, while State Treasurer Clint Zweifel was next with 13.8 percent, Montee was next at 10.3 percent. Attorney General Chris Koster was next at 6.9 percent. Jason Kander, running for Secretary of State, received no votes.
"He's got the money, name recognition and political independence to succeed, even in the traditionally republican counties, and no one knows who Spence is," said one respondent about Governor Nixon in referencing his GOP opponent Dave Spence.
When asked "Which statewide candidate are you most concerned about in November," 50 percent cited Montee, followed by 17.9 percent who mentioned Kander, Koster at 14.3 percent, Nixon at 10.7 percent, and Zweifel at 7.1 percent.
When given an opportunity to explain their decisions, eight responses mentioned the Montee-Kinder race.
"The race between Montee and Kinder for Lt. Gov. is a race between 2 flawed candidates," one person wrote.
Most of the others said Kinder had better name recognition even though he has been plagued by controversy over areas where his official state spending crossed into his personal life, including thousands of dollars in St. Louis-area hotel bills.
Noting that Montee lost her last statewide race as an incumbent, one person surveyed said, "I suspect if Democrats would have anticipated the intensity of the Republican primary for LG, they would have found a better candidate."
Patch also asked Democrats if they would be interested in having the 2016 Democratic National Convention in St. Louis. The Gateway City was a runner-up to Charlotte in 2012, and officials here have indicated they will make a new attempt in the next Presidential campaign cycle.
More than 93 percent of those polled said they would want it here.
About The Red Arch/Blue Arch Surveys
Patch political surveys are not a scientific random sample of any larger population, but rather an effort to listen to a swath of influential local Republican and Democratic activists, party leaders and elected officials in Missouri. All of these individuals have agreed to participate in the surveys, although not all responded to this week's questions.
Patch will be conducting Red Arch and Blue Arch surveys throughout 2012 in hopes of determining the true sentiment of conservatives, liberals and moderates on the ground in Missouri.
If you are an activist, party leader or elected official and would like to take part in a bi-weekly survey that lasts just a few minutes, please email Gregg.Palermo@patch.com.
Blue Arch Roster: Shelley Welsch (University City Mayor), Jake Zimmerman (St. Louis County Assessor), Bert Boxerman (Creve Coeur Township Committeeman), Tracy McCreery (State Representative), Jeanne Antoine (Olivette City Council), Missy Waldman (Olivette City Council), Richard Callow (PR Strategist), John Callahan (Committeeman for St. Charles County Township), Julie Biermann (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Charissa Mayes (Committeewoman for St. Charles County Township), Jerry Daugherty (St. Charles County Councilman), Keith English (Florissant City Councilman/State Rep. candidate), Mary Elizabeth Dorsey (Florissant Township Committeewoman), Chuck Banks (Former Jefferson County Executive), Jo Ann Karll (DNC Convention delegate), Mary Broida (Fenton Committeewoman), Bob Usher (Voter), Tammy Vent (Rock Township Committeewoman), LaDonna Appelbaum (Convention Delegate), Timothy Green (State Senator), Gina Mitten (Richmond Heights Councilmember/State Rep. Candidate), Jill Schupp (State Representative), Jim Descher (Voter), Ken Curtis (West County Democrats Co-Chair), Steve Biggs (Meramec Township Committeeman), John Niemeyer (Meramec Township), Jim Frain (Voter), Julie Dougherty (Voter), Linda Robson (Voter), Jim McHugh (Aide to former St. Louis County Executive), Molly McHugh (St. Louis County Planning Commission), Bob Burns (Affton School Board), Mark Powell (Former Arnold Mayor), John Messmer (Former DNC alternative delegate), Karl Frank, Jr. (Former Mehlville School Board Member/Activist), Donna Seidel (activist), Tom Diehl (Former School Board Member/Activist), Jim Barrett (Activist), Harvey Ferdman (Maryland Heights Township 2nd VP), Rod Jennings (University City School Board Member), Jane Dueker (Former Assistant AG/Chief of Staff To Governor Bob Holden), Gina Walsh (State Senate Candidate), Morton Todd (St. Charles County Democratic Committee Chairman), Mary "Kate" Laughlin (Voter), Rod Hoffman (State Rep. Candidate), Beverly Cowling (Voter), Bill Stinson (State Rep.), Russ Craven (St. Charles County Democratic Central Committee), Theresa Borchert (Voter), Jim Karll (Voter), Jeff Wagener (Former St. Louis County Councilman), Pat Dolan (St. Louis County Council), Stacey Newman (State Representative), Cheryl Hibbeler (Former St. Charles County Council Representative), Deb Lavender (State Rep. Candidate), Kevin O'Malley (Fundraiser/Alternate Convention Delegate), Susan Meredith (State Rep. candidate), Susan Montee (Lt. Governor candidate), Bob Burns (State Rep. Candidate), Jim Karll (St. Charles County Democrats), Gloria Nickerson (Activist), Maureen Rogers-Bouxsein (Activist), Jo Ann Hughes (Activist)